NFL Week 3 picks: Tom Brady takes down Aaron Rodgers, Bills thrash Dolphins, Broncos shock 49ers

I used to be going to begin issues off right here by making enjoyable of the Browns for his or her large choke job in opposition to the Jets on Sunday, however then I remembered I had an equally massive choke job in Week 2: I went 5-11 in opposition to the unfold. No, I did not blow a 30-17 lead with 90 seconds left to play just like the Browns did, however going 5-11 is actually the identical factor. 

I blame that dumb elf that the Browns put at midfield for his or her sport. That factor has cursed the staff and my picks. Should you’ve ever seen “The Ring,” the identical factor occurs if you have a look at Brownie the elf, besides you do not die, you simply get your picks mistaken. 

The excellent news for me is that I do not imagine in elves or curses or the colour brown, so I must be simply tremendous making my picks this week. Though I went 5-11 ATS, I went 9-7 straight-up, so the week wasn’t a complete loss. Talking of the picks, let’s get to them.

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder which you can try the weekly picks from each NFL skilled by clicking right here. I get 2.3 cents each time somebody clicks by way of on that hyperlink, so make sure that to click on early and infrequently. Really, that is not true, I feel the cash truly simply goes to the funds CBS has allotted for Will Brinson’s hair care. 

Talking of Brinson, he is the host of the Decide Six Podcast, and simply in case I have never made it clear over the previous two weeks, I will be becoming a member of him three days per week on the podcast — Monday, Wednesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. Despite the fact that I am solely on three days per week, there is a new episode each single day from Monday by way of Friday and you need to attempt to pay attention as typically as attainable (You may hearken to Tuesday’s episode beneath and click on right here to test it out and subscribe). 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 3 picks

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cleveland (1-1)

8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

Newest Odds:

Cleveland Browns

If I’ve observed one factor concerning the Steelers this season, it is that they principally present up each week with no offensive sport plan after which make it up as they go alongside. Not surprisingly, this hasn’t been figuring out nicely for them to this point and I feel individuals are beginning to discover. I imply, we have barely performed two weeks and gamers are already beginning to complain concerning the play-calling of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. 

I have never learn evaluations that dangerous since “The Emoji Film” got here out. On the price he is going, Matt Canada could be teaching in Canada by the tip of the season. issues are going badly when a retailer is utilizing your identify to try to get followers drunk. 

I will have a six-pack of the Dragon’s Milk please. 

The one factor about this sport is that I do not know which staff goes to bounce again higher following their loss in Week 2. The Steelers misplaced by three to the Patriots thanks largely to the truth that their offense could not transfer the ball and the Browns blew a 30-17 lead over the ultimate 90 seconds, which I assume should not even have shocked me in any respect since no NFL staff is healthier than the Browns at discovering inconceivable methods to lose. 

The Browns had the type of emotional loss that may result in a letdown the next week and I feel we would see that on this sport. That being mentioned, even when the Browns have a letdown, the Steelers offense is not adequate to make the most of it. By two weeks, the Browns and Steelers have every performed two video games and all 4 of these sport have been determined by three factors or much less, so clearly, I cannot be predicting a blowout, however I will likely be predicting an upset. 

The decide: Steelers 16-13 over Browns. 

Buffalo (2-0) at Miami (2-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

I do not know the way it occurred, however this sport is by some means the one one on the schedule this week that may characteristic two undefeated groups taking part in in opposition to one another. I am not normally one to inform individuals what to do with their lives, however when you’ve got plans with somebody at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, you need to positively cancel these plans so you may watch this sport. Nicely, until you are performing open coronary heart surgical procedure on a cat or selecting up your toddler at a birthday celebration or taking your grandma to play BINGO. 

If these are your plans, please do not cancel these. I might really feel horrible if grandma missed BINGO since you listened to some man who went 5-11 ATS along with his picks final week. To be sincere, I in all probability may have made more cash taking part in BINGO in Week 2 than selecting video games. 

Anyway, I have been watching the Dolphins play for 2 weeks now and I nonetheless do not know what to make of them. I do suppose that they are positively good, however I am simply undecided how good. Positive, they’ve scored eight touchdowns in simply two video games, however half of these got here in only one quarter. They scored 4 touchdowns in opposition to Baltimore within the fourth quarter on Sunday, however they’ve solely scored a complete of 4 of their seven different quarters. 

They beat a Ravens staff that had a nasty protection and a Patriots staff that had a nasty offense, so what is going on to occur once they play a Payments staff that is not dangerous at both of these issues? It is in all probability not going to finish nicely for the Dolphins. 

The opposite downside for the Dolphin is that they at all times appear to battle in opposition to Josh Allen. The Payments have gained seven straight video games on this rivalry and people seven wins have come by a mean of 19.3 factors per sport. Josh Allen has thrown a number of landing passes in each sport he is ever performed in opposition to the Dolphins, which positively is not excellent news for the Dolphins. Some quarterbacks simply excel in opposition to sure groups. We have seen Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears, Ben Roethlisberger dominate the Browns and Tom Brady dominate the Payments, now we’re seeing Josh Allen dominate the Dolphins and I feel that domination continues on Sunday. 

The decide: Payments 37-27 over Dolphins. 

Inexperienced Bay (1-1) at Tampa Bay (2-0)

4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers spent a part of his offseason in South America, which I am solely mentioning, as a result of getting this sport moved to South America might be Rodgers’ greatest probability at profitable this week. If he cannot pull that off, which means he will should play in Florida and if there’s one factor I find out about Aaron Rodgers, it is that he hates taking part in within the state of Florida. 

Rodgers has performed a complete of eight video games in his profession in Florida and he is gone 3-5 in these video games. Even worse, for the reason that begin of the 2020 season, Rodgers is 0-2 in Florida and he is thrown 4 interceptions in these two video games, which is insane when you think about that he is solely thrown six interception within the 30 video games he is performed exterior of Florida. For these of you who hate math, that is two interceptions per sport in Florida and 0.2 when taking part in exterior of Florida. He’s actually throwing interceptions at a ten instances greater price in Florida than he does at every other time. It is unnecessary, which I assume type of is sensible, as a result of nothing in Florida is sensible. I imply, we’re speaking a couple of state the place a man is attempting to interrupt the world document for largest assortment of “Titanic” films. 

And no, that tweet isn’t referring to me. I solely have 19 VHS copies of “Titanic,” which is certainly not the world document. 

Anyway, in case you’ve ever been to Florida in September, you will have observed that the air is so thick that you simply really feel such as you’re respiration out of a straw crammed with maple syrup. You additionally sweat greater than… what, I will simply let Gronk clarify how a lot you sweat. 

Additionally, let’s not overlook about Tom Brady’s first coaching camp in Tampa Bay. 

Aaron Rodgers went from taking part in faculty soccer in California to taking part in skilled soccer in Wisconsin, so he is by no means actually needed to cope with Florida climate and I am beginning to suppose he would possibly truly hate it, which might clarify why he is 3-5 within the Sunshine State. However, the Buccaneers apply in that climate day-after-day, so I am guessing they’re used to it at this level. 

Between now and Sunday, all you are going to hear about is how this sport is giving us Aaron Rodgers vs. Tom Brady, however the larger matchup is Aaron Rodgers vs. excessive humidity and I am taking excessive humidity. Rodgers is 1-3 all-time in opposition to Brady and I feel he might need a good worse document in opposition to excessive humidity. 

I also needs to word that that is the primary time Rodgers and Brady have confronted one another for the reason that NFC title sport in January 2021. Should you do not keep in mind that sport, it is the one the place Matt LaFleur inexplicably determined to kick a area objective with two minutes left in a sport the place the Packers have been down eight. 

It has been practically two years since that occurred and I nonetheless cannot work out why he tried that area objective. The one factor that is sensible for me right here is to take Buccaneers by a area objective. 

The decide: Buccaneers 20-17 over Packers

San Francisco (1-1) at Denver (1-1)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

Newest Odds:

Denver Broncos

I do know we’re solely two video games into the season, however I’ve already seen sufficient of the Broncos offense this yr to know that Russell Wilson throwing the ball does not actually appear to be working. Every time Wilson drops again to go, I’ve observed that considered one of three issues appears to occur: He will get sacked, he throws an incomplete go or the play is blown lifeless as a result of the Broncos get known as for a delay of sport. 

As you in all probability observed, all of these issues are dangerous. If somebody informed me I used to be going to be hit by a bus, shot within the arm or stung by a hive of lethal bees each time I left my home, I might NEVER go away my home. Should you’re questioning what my bizarre state of affairs has to do with something, I feel what I am saying is that the Broncos can keep away from having three dangerous choices by NOT throwing the ball on a regular basis. That’s their model of not leaving the home. 

In Denver’s win over the Texans on Sunday, Javonte Williams averaged FIVE YARDS PER CARRY, however that did not matter as a result of he solely bought 15 carries within the sport. As a substitute of feeding Javonte, they determined to let Wilson hold throwing the ball, which isn’t supreme when your QB is barely finishing 45.2% of his passes like Wilson did in opposition to the Texans.  

The irony in all of that is that it is beginning to appear like Pete Carroll might need been proper about every part. He put a robust working sport and nice protection round Wilson in order that he did not have to hold the staff and it could be time for the Broncos to steal that concept. As a substitute of going with the “Let Russ Cook dinner” philosophy, the Broncos would possibly wish to begin embracing the “Let Russ assist in the kitchen, however do not let him cook dinner by himself” philosophy. Mainly, the Broncos ought to begin working the ball extra and let that open up the go. 

Though Wilson hasn’t appeared good in any respect this season, if there’s one staff he can flip issues round in opposition to, it is the 49ers. Wilson confronted them 21 instances whereas he was with the Seahawks and in these 21 video games, he went 17-4. 

If Nathaniel Hackett is wise, he’ll return and watch these 17 wins to grasp how the Seahawks have been in a position to win with Wilson: 1. They ran the ball. 2. They performed good protection. 3. They Let Russ Cook dinner.

Please word that letting Russ cook dinner is listed final. 

As for the 49ers, they could be higher with Jimmy Garoppolo beneath middle, however I am undecided that applies once they’re taking part in AFC groups. In Garoppolo’s final 10 begins in opposition to AFC groups, the 49ers are simply 5-5. 

The decide: Broncos 22-19 over 49ers

Dallas (1-1) at N.Y. Giants (2-0)

8:15 p.m. ET, Monday (ESPN)

Newest Odds:

New York Giants

I do not wish to say that this would possibly go down as the best Monday evening sport of all-time, however I am beginning to suppose it could be attainable. It is the showdown of all showdowns: Now we have a quarterback who has by no means misplaced a begin in his profession (Cooper Rush) going up in opposition to a Giants staff that is undefeated on the season. 

This sport is the immovable pressure in opposition to the immovable pressure and I”m saying that as a result of I do not suppose both offense is de facto going to maneuver the ball very a lot on Monday evening. The Cowboys have the most effective defenses within the NFL and so they’ve proven that over the previous two weeks by holding each the Buccaneers and Bengals to beneath 20 factors. The Cowboys offense cannot rating, however they needn’t, as a result of their protection is so good. 

As for the Giants, though they’re 2-0, they have not precisely been lighting up the scoreboard of their wins. The Giants are averaging simply 20 factors per sport by way of two weeks and it is onerous to ascertain them topping that quantity since it will possible be the very best protection that they’ve confronted but. 

I really feel like this sport goes to come back right down to Saquon Barkley. In Week 1, a giant cause the Cowboys misplaced is as a result of they forgot tips on how to sort out anytime Leonard Fournette touched the ball. The Buccaneers working again averaged 6.05 yards per carry in opposition to the Cowboys and if Barkley can get anyplace close to that quantity, it will be a protracted evening for Dallas. 

One thing has to provide on Monday evening: Both Cooper Rush goes to lose his first profession sport (he is 2-0) or the Giants are going to lose their first sport of the season, and I can not imagine I am going to do that, however I am taking the Giants though they’ve misplaced six straight Monday evening video games and 9 of their previous 10 to the Cowboys. 

The decide: Giants 16-13 over Cowboys

NFL Week 3 picks: All the remaining

Texans 19-16 over Bears
Raiders 24-17 over Titans
Chiefs 31-20 over Colts
Eagles 30-16 over Commanders
Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Ravens 27-17 over Patriots
Bengals 34-24 over Jets
Rams 27-20 over Cardinals
Saints 20-16 over Panthers
Seahawks 23-20 over Falcons
Chargers 30-20 over Jaguars 
IF JUSTIN HERBERT DOESN’T PLAY: Jaguars 23-20 over Chargers

Final Week

Finest decide: Final week, I predicted that Tom Brady would lastly beat the Saints and guess what occurred? Tom Brady lastly beat the Saints in an everyday season sport for the primary time as a member of the Buccaneers. Now, did I do know that Jameis Winston was going to fully soften down by throwing three interceptions within the fourth quarter? After all I did. Anytime Winston performs, there is a 70% probability he will soften down in some unspecified time in the future and there is a 50% probability that meltdown goes to come back within the fourth quarter. 

Brady additionally had a meltdown, nevertheless it did not occur on the sector, it occurred on the sideline and the one sufferer was an harmless pill. 

Brady has now damaged a pill in two straight video games the place Tampa Bay was taking part in the Saints, which I imagine is the NFL document for many consecutive video games smashing a pill in opposition to one staff. 

Worst decide: For some cause, I picked the Vikings to beat the Eagles and I will need to have forgotten that the sport was being performed on a Monday evening as a result of no sane particular person would ever decide Kirk Cousins to win a sport on Monday evening. Going into Week 2, Cousins had the worst profitable proportion in NFL historical past of any quarterback who has began a minimum of 10 Monday evening video games. He was 2-9, and after throwing three interceptions in opposition to the Eagles, he is now 2-10. Selecting Cousins to win in a Monday evening sport is like selecting a vegetarian to win a meat loaf consuming contest. It is unnecessary, so do not do it, however I nonetheless did it. 

Picks Report

Straight up in Week 2: 9-7
SU general:18-13-1

Towards the unfold in Week 2: 5-11
ATS general: 14-18

Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he isn’t doing a kind of issues, he is in all probability working towards for the meat loaf contest he plans on coming into subsequent month.